America Mineiro 4–3 Londrina: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Londrina

Zé Ricardo 85'

Júnior Viçosa 74', 54' (pen)

Paulão 45+3'

Paulinho Moccelin 75'

Willian Maranhão 45+5' (OG)

Anderson Leite 12'

8/7/2019

Serie B · Round 15Arena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro47%

×Draw24%

Londrina29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

America Mineiro

1.66

Londrina

1.25

America Mineiro creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.49

creates per match

1.10

1.39

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.49

Londrina

1.10

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.39

Londrina

1.82

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

America Mineiro+0.01on par

Londrina+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

71%

America Mineiro or Londrina

76%

Draw or Londrina

53%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

25%

Londrina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

81%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

49%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

23%

Londrina 1+ goals

71%

Londrina 2+ goals

36%

Londrina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

62%

Londrina (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.39 · 8 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.49 + Londrina defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Londrina attack 1.10 + America Mineiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

America Mineiro scores more

47%

level

24%

Londrina scores more

29%

America Mineiro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Júnior Viçosa

America Mineiro · F

8.5

Match Events

12'

Anderson Leite↳ Paulinho Moccelin

19'

França← Anderson Leite

45'

Pedrão

45+3'

Paulão↳ João Paulo

45+5'

Willian MaranhãoOwn goal

46'

Neto Berola← Felipe Azevedo

54'

Silvio← Marcondes

54'

Júnior ViçosaPenalty

60'

Sávio← João Paulo

72'

Bruno Paulista← Denner

74'

Júnior Viçosa↳ Neto Berola

75'

Júnior Viçosa

75'

Paulinho Moccelin↳ Higor Leite

80'

Anderson Leite

81'

França

83'

Bruno Paulista

85'

Zé Ricardo↳ Matheusinho

86'

Luiz Fernando← Júnior Viçosa

87'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaLondrina

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots12

5Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots12

12On Target5

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

10Inside Box6

10Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

429Total Passes360

330Accurate Passes262

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Serie B: America Mineiro 4–3 Londrina

America Mineiro beat Londrina 4-3 in Serie B on August 7, 2019.

Goals: Anderson Leite (12'), Paulão (45+3'), Willian Maranhão (45+5' o.g.), Júnior Viçosa (54' pen, 74'), Paulinho Moccelin (75'), Zé Ricardo (85').

America Mineiro controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Arena Independência in Belo Horizonte.

America Mineiro vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: America Mineiro 4–3 Londrina