America Mineiro 3–2 Londrina: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Londrina

Luan 77'

Bill 65', 45' (pen)

Jonatas Belusso 75'

Celsinho 11'

8/1/2017

Serie B · Round 18Arena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro47%

×Draw24%

Londrina29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

America Mineiro

1.66

Londrina

1.25

America Mineiro creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.49

creates per match

1.10

1.39

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.49

Londrina

1.10

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.39

Londrina

1.82

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

America Mineiro+0.01on par

Londrina+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

71%

America Mineiro or Londrina

76%

Draw or Londrina

53%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

25%

Londrina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

81%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

49%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

23%

Londrina 1+ goals

71%

Londrina 2+ goals

36%

Londrina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

62%

Londrina (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.39 · 8 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.49 + Londrina defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Londrina attack 1.10 + America Mineiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

America Mineiro scores more

47%

level

24%

Londrina scores more

29%

America Mineiro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Bill

America Mineiro

8.3

Match Events

11'

Celsinho↳ Artur

12'

Elias Bidia← Igor Miranda

26'

Bill

45'

BillPenalty

62'

Hugo← Neto

62'

Willian← Giovanni

65'

Bill↳ Matheusinho

66'

Celsinho

68'

Marcinho← Rafael Gava

73'

Carlos← Celsinho

75'

Jonatas Belusso↳ Artur

77'

Luan↳ Bill

85'

Hugo

90'

Jardel

90'

Jonatas Belusso

90+1'

Gerson Magrão← Matheusinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaLondrina

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots10

7Corners4

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target3

5Off Target5

0Blocked2

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

447Total Passes399

361Accurate Passes311

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides5