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Londrina vs ABC — Serie B 2026

Londrina
Londrina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ABC
ABC
Diego Jardel 89'
4/16/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 1Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Londrina49%
×Draw28%
ABC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Londrina
1.36
ABC
0.85

Londrina creates 60% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 23 away

creates per match

Londrina
1.21
ABC
0.70

allows per match

Londrina
1.00
ABC
1.52

finishing

Londrina+0.00on par
ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 62Over: 3862%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Londrina ↓

ABC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Londrina or draw
77%
Londrina or ABC
72%
Draw or ABC
51%

Winning margin

Londrina wins by 2+
23%
ABC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Londrina 1+ goals
74%
Londrina 2+ goals
39%
Londrina 3+ goals
16%
ABC 1+ goals
57%
ABC 2+ goals
21%
ABC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Londrina (draw refunded)
68%
ABC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Londrina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

ABC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Londrina attack 1.21 + ABC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

ABC attack 0.70 + Londrina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Londrina scores more
49%
level
28%
ABC scores more
23%

Londrina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Londrina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Lucas FrigeriLondrinaLondrina · G
7.6

Match Events

19'
Afonso
46'
Jhonnathan← Richardson
46'
Léo Ceará← Allan Dias
46'
Daniel Carvalho← Wellington Reis
58'
Diego Jardel← Vinicius Barata
59'
Caio Mancha← Higor Leite
68'
Gabriel← Ezequiel
69'
De Paula← Welliton
72'
Da Silva← Patrick Marcelino
73'
A. Udeh← Hugo Cabral
80'
Caique← Jean Patrick
89'
Diego Jardel↳ A. Udeh

Possession

Londrina: 53ABC: 4753%Londrina

Shots

Londrina: 18ABC: 918Londrina

Pass accuracy

Londrina: 73ABC: 7051%Londrina

Statistics

LondrinaABC
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots9
10Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots9
5On Target4
8Off Target3
5Blocked2
11Inside Box3
7Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
384Total Passes347
282Accurate Passes242
73%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1

Londrina 1 – 0 ABC

Londrina beat ABC 1-0 in Serie B on April 16, 2023.

Goals: Diego Jardel (89').

Londrina controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.