ABC 0–0 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie B

ABC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Londrina

7/29/2023

Serie B · Round 20Arena das Dunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

ABC38%

×Draw31%

Londrina31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.94

ABC

1.06

Londrina

0.94

ABC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 90 away

0.70

creates per match

0.76

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

ABC

0.70

Londrina

0.76

allows per match

ABC

1.13

Londrina

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

ABC or draw

69%

ABC or Londrina

69%

Draw or Londrina

62%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

15%

Londrina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

65%

ABC 2+ goals

29%

ABC 3+ goals

9%

Londrina 1+ goals

61%

Londrina 2+ goals

24%

Londrina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

55%

Londrina (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 0.70 + Londrina defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.06

Londrina attack 0.76 + ABC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ABC scores more

38%

level

31%

Londrina scores more

31%

ABC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

João Paulo

Londrina · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

32'

56'

61'

64'

Matheus Refundini← Welligton Lima

64'

Rodrigo← Moisés Gaúcho

68'

Rafael Vaz

70'

Jean Martim← R. Bressan

70'

Maycon Douglas← Evandro

74'

A. Udeh← Peu

74'

Lucas Coelho← Zé Santos

86'

Ariel← Higor Leite

90'

Maycon Douglas

90+1'

Ezequiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ABCLondrina

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots13

6Corners9

15Fouls23

Shots

17Total Shots13

3On Target0

7Off Target11

7Blocked2

10Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

370Total Passes320

301Accurate Passes250

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls23

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2

Serie B: ABC 0–0 Londrina

ABC and Londrina drew 0-0 in Serie B on July 29, 2023.

ABC controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Arena das Dunas in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: ABC 0–0 Londrina