ABC 0–2 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Londrina

Eduardo Thuram 54' (OG)

Daniel Amorim 45+1' (pen)

5/11/2024

Serie C · Round 4Estádio Maria Lamas Farache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

ABC40%

×Draw28%

Londrina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

ABC

1.25

Londrina

1.08

ABC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

1.35

creates per match

1.11

1.06

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Londrina

1.11

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Londrina

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ABC or draw

68%

ABC or Londrina

72%

Draw or Londrina

60%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

18%

Londrina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

71%

ABC 2+ goals

36%

ABC 3+ goals

13%

Londrina 1+ goals

66%

Londrina 2+ goals

29%

Londrina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

56%

Londrina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Londrina defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Londrina attack 1.11 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ABC scores more

40%

level

28%

Londrina scores more

32%

ABC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Pedro Felipe

34'

Calyson Rosa← Henrique

45+1'

Daniel AmorimPenalty

54'

Eduardo ThuramOwn goal

55'

Daniel Carvalho← Matheus Blade

55'

David Ribeiro← Wallyson

66'

Samuel Andrade← Pablo Ruan

71'

Ruan← Pedro Felipe

71'

Sammuel← Gabriel Santiago

77'

Everton← Iago Teles

77'

Marthã← Kady

82'

Daniel Cruz← Jenison

90+3'

Calyson Rosa

ABC

Londrina

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Fonseca

55'▲Daniel Carvalho←▼Matheus Blade

55'▲David Ribeiro←▼Wallyson

71'▲Ruan←▼Pedro Felipe

71'▲Sammuel←▼Gabriel Santiago

82'▲Daniel Cruz←▼Jenison

ABC substitutes

CarvalhoRibeiroRuanSammuelCruzEduardoArantesAmaralMarinhoWelligtonSantosOliveira

Manager: Emerson Ávila

34'▲Calyson Rosa←▼Henrique

66'▲Samuel Andrade←▼Pablo Ruan

77'▲Everton←▼Iago Teles

77'▲Marthã←▼Kady

Londrina substitutes

RosaAndradeEvertonMarthãGabrielDanielzinhoDaviElzoLonguineRiquelmy

Match Recap: ABC vs Londrina

Londrina beat ABC 2-0 in Serie C on May 11, 2024.

Goals: Daniel Amorim (45+1' pen), Eduardo Thuram (54' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte.

ABC vs Londrina — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ABC vs Londrina