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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - West 2020

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
9/23/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 8Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen54%
×Draw23%
Fomat Martin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.82
Fomat Martin
1.10

Lokomotíva Zvolen creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.00
Fomat Martin
1.28

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.93
Fomat Martin
1.65

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
77%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Fomat Martin
77%
Draw or Fomat Martin
46%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
31%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
54%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
27%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
67%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
30%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
70%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 2.00 + Fomat Martin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Fomat Martin attack 1.28 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
54%
level
23%
Fomat Martin scores more
23%

Lokomotíva Zvolen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotíva Zvolen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Lokomotíva Zvolen 1–3 Fomat Martin

Fomat Martin beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 3-1 in 3. liga - West on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.