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Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Fomat Martin — 3. liga - Center 2020

Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
FT
0 – 2
Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
8/23/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 4Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen15%
×Draw20%
Fomat Martin64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.90
Fomat Martin
2.08

Fomat Martin creates 131% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.43
Fomat Martin
1.46

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen
2.71
Fomat Martin
1.37

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par
Fomat Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Fomat Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw
36%
Lokomotíva Zvolen or Fomat Martin
80%
Draw or Fomat Martin
85%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
5%
Fomat Martin wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
59%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
23%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
6%
Fomat Martin 1+ goals
87%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
61%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
19%
Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Fomat Martin away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.43 + Fomat Martin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.90

Fomat Martin attack 1.46 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
15%
level
20%
Fomat Martin scores more
64%

Fomat Martin at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Fomat Martin

Fomat Martin beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 2-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen in Zvolen.