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Fomat Martin vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - West 2020

Fomat Martin
Fomat Martin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
4/20/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Športový park Pltníky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fomat Martin38%
×Draw26%
Lokomotíva Zvolen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fomat Martin
1.38
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fomat Martin
1.76
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.33

allows per match

Fomat Martin
1.36
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

finishing

Fomat Martin+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fomat Martin ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fomat Martin or draw
64%
Fomat Martin or Lokomotíva Zvolen
74%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
62%

Winning margin

Fomat Martin wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fomat Martin 1+ goals
75%
Fomat Martin 2+ goals
40%
Fomat Martin 3+ goals
16%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
39%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fomat Martin (draw refunded)
51%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fomat Martin at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fomat Martin attack 1.76 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.33 + Fomat Martin defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fomat Martin scores more
38%
level
26%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
36%

Fomat Martin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fomat Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Fomat Martin 0–1 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Lokomotíva Zvolen beat Fomat Martin 1-0 in 3. liga - West on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Športový park Pltníky in Martin-Záturčie.