Lokomotiv 1–1 Dynamo: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dynamo

A. Karpukas 53'

N. Marichal 24'

5/1/2026

Premier League · Round 28RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Lokomotiv43%

×Draw24%

Dynamo33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchDynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.40

Lokomotiv

1.63

Dynamo

1.40

Lokomotiv creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.83

creates per match

1.63

1.18

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.83

Dynamo

1.63

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.18

Dynamo

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

67%

Lokomotiv or Dynamo

76%

Draw or Dynamo

57%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

22%

Dynamo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

80%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

48%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

22%

Dynamo 1+ goals

75%

Dynamo 2+ goals

41%

Dynamo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

57%

Dynamo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.43 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.83 + Dynamo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dynamo attack 1.63 + Lokomotiv defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

43%

level

24%

Dynamo scores more

33%

Lokomotiv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

83

A. Batrakov

Lokomotiv · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

G. Nyamsi← C. Montes

24'

N. Marichal↳ Bitello

46'

Z. Bakaev← S. Pinyaev

46'

N. Moumi Ngamaleu← Arthur Gomes

53'

A. Karpukas↳ A. Batrakov

57'

D. Skopintsev← M. Majstorovic

58'

N. Komlichenko← D. Vorobyev

63'

D. Glebov← L. Chavez

70'

Gerzino Nyamsi

73'

L. Vera← D. Prutsev

73'

N. Saltykov← A. Rudenko

74'

I. Sergeev← Bitello

74'

David Ricardo← J. Caceres

77'

Dmitri Skopintsev

90+4'

Aleksey Batrakov

90+3'

David Ricardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivDynamo

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots10

6Corners5

19Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked2

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

423Total Passes421

326Accurate Passes330

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2