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Dynamo vs Lokomotiv — Premier League 2025

Dynamo
Dynamo
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
M. Osipenko 85' (pen)
Bitello 27'
I. Sergeev 23'
A. Rudenko 90'
D. Vorobyev 81'
N. Komlichenko 68'
A. Batrakov 43' (pen)
D. Prutsev 1'
10/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11VTB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dynamo46%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo
1.90
Lokomotiv
1.53

Dynamo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dynamo
2.12
Lokomotiv
1.60

allows per match

Dynamo
1.46
Lokomotiv
1.67

finishing

Dynamo+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dynamo or draw
69%
Dynamo or Lokomotiv
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv
54%

Winning margin

Dynamo wins by 2+
26%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dynamo 1+ goals
85%
Dynamo 2+ goals
56%
Dynamo 3+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dynamo (draw refunded)
60%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo attack 2.12 + Lokomotiv defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Lokomotiv attack 1.60 + Dynamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dynamo scores more
46%
level
22%
Lokomotiv scores more
31%

Dynamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
D. PrutsevLokomotivLokomotiv · M
9.3

Match Events

1'
D. Prutsev↳ D. Vorobyev
23'
I. Sergeev
25'
Ivan SergeevGoal confirmed
27'
Bitello↳ I. Sergeev
40'
Aleksandr RudenkoPenalty confirmed
42'
Juan Cáceres
43'
A. BatrakovPenalty
58'
N. Komlichenko← A. Karpukas
60'
D. Skopintsev← Rubens
68'
N. Komlichenko↳ A. Batrakov
77'
N. Marichal← D. Glebov
77'
K. Tyukavin← E. Maouhoub
80'
Egor Pogostnov
81'
D. Vorobyev↳ N. Komlichenko
85'
M. OsipenkoPenalty
89'
Y. Gladyshev← I. Sergeev
90+5'
M. Nenakhov← D. Vorobyev
90'
A. Rudenko↳ D. Prutsev

Possession

55%Dynamo

Shots

23Dynamo

Pass accuracy

51%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoLokomotiv
Overview
55%Possession45%
23Total Shots18
9Corners4
9Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots18
8On Target8
6Off Target3
9Blocked7
20Inside Box17
3Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
407Total Passes336
309Accurate Passes245
76%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Premier League: Dynamo 3–5 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Dynamo 5-3 in Premier League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: D. Prutsev (1'), I. Sergeev (23'), Bitello (27'), A. Batrakov (43' pen), N. Komlichenko (68'), D. Vorobyev (81'), M. Osipenko (85' pen), A. Rudenko (90').

Dynamo controlled possession (55%) and registered 23 shots to 18.

The match was played at VTB Arena in Moscow.