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Lokomotiv vs Dynamo — Premier League 2025

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dynamo
Dynamo
A. Silyanov 76'
D. Vorobyev 38'
Arthur Gomes 45'
3/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lokomotiv44%
×Draw25%
Dynamo31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.55
Dynamo
1.26

Lokomotiv creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.00
Dynamo
1.58

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.94
Dynamo
1.10

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
69%
Lokomotiv or Dynamo
75%
Draw or Dynamo
56%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
22%
Dynamo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
46%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
20%
Dynamo 1+ goals
72%
Dynamo 2+ goals
36%
Dynamo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
59%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Dynamo away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.00 + Dynamo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Dynamo attack 1.58 + Lokomotiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
44%
level
25%
Dynamo scores more
31%

Lokomotiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
A. SilyanovLokomotivLokomotiv · D
8.5

Match Events

38'
D. Vorobyev↳ A. Batrakov
45'
Arthur Gomes↳ J. Carrascal
46'
N. Tiknizyan← E. Sevikyan
51'
V. Sarveli← S. Pinyaev
53'
Jorge Carrascal
70'
Maksim Nenakhov
74'
E. Maouhoub← Arthur Gomes
76'
A. Silyanov
88'
D. Makarov← Y. Gladyshev
88'
D. Laxalt← D. Skopintsev
90+5'
Ilya Lantratov
90+1'
T. Suleymanov← D. Vorobyev
90+1'
N. Ngamaleu← L. Chávez

Possession

46%Lokomotiv

Shots

8Lokomotiv

Pass accuracy

49%Lokomotiv

Statistics

LokomotivDynamo
Overview
46%Possession54%
8Total Shots19
3Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots19
5On Target5
1Off Target7
2Blocked7
6Inside Box14
2Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
366Total Passes424
278Accurate Passes340
76%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Lokomotiv vs Dynamo

Lokomotiv beat Dynamo 2-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Vorobyev (38'), Arthur Gomes (45'), A. Silyanov (76').

Dynamo controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.