Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1/16/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv58%

×Draw23%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv PlovdivExpected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.89

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.78

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.89

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 100% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.06

0.71

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.43

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.06

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.71

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw

81%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

77%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

42%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

33%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

83%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

53%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

59%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

22%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

76%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.43 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.06 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

58%

level

23%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

19%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff