Etar Veliko Tarnovo 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

9/17/2023

First League · Round 9Stadion Ivailo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo36%

×Draw28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar Veliko TarnovoExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.22

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 136 away

1.08

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.08

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.29

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw

63%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

72%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

64%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

15%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

70%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

34%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

12%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

70%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

34%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

49%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

36%

level

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

37%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff