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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo — First League 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2/26/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv52%
×Draw26%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.53
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.88

Lokomotiv Plovdiv creates 74% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.81

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.94
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.72

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par
Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
74%
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
48%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+
27%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals
20%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
59%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
22%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)
71%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 135 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.34 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.53

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more
52%
level
26%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
22%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Etar Veliko Tarnovo drew 1-1 in First League on February 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.