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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
10/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow45%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Moscow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.53
Dinamo Moscow
1.21

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 26% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.69
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.02
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
70%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Dinamo Moscow
75%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
22%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
20%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
60%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
45%
level
25%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
30%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow

Lokomotiv Moscow and Dinamo Moscow drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.