Lokomotiv Moscow 0–0 Dinamo Moscow: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moscow

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moscow

5/8/2021

Premier League · Round 29RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow45%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Moscow30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MoscowExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.21

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.53

Dinamo Moscow

1.21

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 26% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.41

1.02

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.69

Dinamo Moscow

1.41

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.02

Dinamo Moscow

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Dinamo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw

70%

Lokomotiv Moscow or Dinamo Moscow

75%

Draw or Dinamo Moscow

55%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

78%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

45%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

20%

Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

60%

Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

45%

level

25%

Dinamo Moscow scores more

30%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Barinov

Lokomotiv Moscow · M

7.3

Match Events

15'

Konstantin Tyukavin

17'

S. Magkeev← V. Ignatjev

18'

Arsen Zakharyan

27'

Rifat Zhemaletdinov

31'

Ivan Ordets

43'

François KamanoGoal cancelled

46'

F. Smolov← F. Kamano

46'

A. Miranchuk← R. Zhemaletdinov

46'

V. Grulev← K. Tyukavin

73'

Ivan Ordets

73'

Ivan Ordets

76'

R. Neustädter← D. Fomin

81'

V. Lisakovich← Zé Luís

82'

Dmitri Zhivoglyadov

85'

C. N'Jie← D. Lesovoy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivDinamo

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots11

3Corners7

16Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target0

5Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

438Total Passes364

328Accurate Passes260

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides4