Lokeren 1–1 Antwerp: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Antwerp

M. Mirić 83'

W. Owusu 12'

9/16/2017

Jupiler Pro League · Round 7Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lokeren28%

×Draw28%

Antwerp44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchAntwerp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.32

Lokeren

0.98

Antwerp

1.32

Antwerp creates 35% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 154 away

0.77

creates per match

1.22

1.42

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Lokeren

0.77

Antwerp

1.22

allows per match

Lokeren

1.42

Antwerp

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

Antwerp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Antwerp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

56%

Lokeren or Antwerp

72%

Draw or Antwerp

72%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

10%

Antwerp wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

62%

Lokeren 2+ goals

26%

Lokeren 3+ goals

8%

Antwerp 1+ goals

73%

Antwerp 2+ goals

38%

Antwerp 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

38%

Antwerp (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.77 + Antwerp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Antwerp attack 1.22 + Lokeren defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokeren scores more

28%

level

28%

Antwerp scores more

44%

Antwerp at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Mehdi Terki

10'

Sambou Yatabare

12'

W. Owusu

46'

S. Kehli← L. Enoh

61'

J. Van Damme← G. Hairemans

68'

Faris Haroun

73'

R. Jaadi← W. Owusu

75'

T. De Sutter← M. Terki

83'

M. Mirić↳ T. De Sutter

88'

Ivo Rodrigues

88'

A. Monsecour← K. Overmeire

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LokerenAntwerp

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots6

11Corners2

8Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots6

2On Target2

6Off Target4

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3