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Antwerp vs Lokeren — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Antwerp
Antwerp
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokeren
Lokeren
W. Owusu 59'
G. Hupperts 61'
J. Michel 15'
12/21/2017Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 20Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Antwerp51%
×Draw24%
Lokeren25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antwerp
1.69
Lokeren
1.12

Antwerp creates 51% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 28 away

creates per match

Antwerp
1.69
Lokeren
1.07

allows per match

Antwerp
1.17
Lokeren
1.68

finishing

Antwerp+0.00on par
Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Lokeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw
75%
Antwerp or Lokeren
76%
Draw or Lokeren
49%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+
27%
Lokeren wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals
82%
Antwerp 2+ goals
50%
Antwerp 3+ goals
24%
Lokeren 1+ goals
67%
Lokeren 2+ goals
31%
Lokeren 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)
67%
Lokeren (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

Lokeren away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.69 + Lokeren defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lokeren attack 1.07 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Antwerp scores more
51%
level
24%
Lokeren scores more
25%

Antwerp at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Michel
17'
N. Ghandri← F. Haroun
39'
Sambou Yatabare
59'
W. Owusu↳ S. Limbombe
61'
G. Hupperts
74'
R. Jaadi← Mamoutou NDiaye
74'
J. Dequevy← Z. Randriambololona
80'
T. De Sutter← G. Hupperts
81'
Joaquín Ardaiz
84'
Killian Overmeire
89'
M. Tičinović← R. Söder
90'
Joerie Dequevy
90+2'
S. Kehli← A. Benchaib

Possession

42%Antwerp

Shots

20Antwerp

Statistics

AntwerpLokeren
Overview
42%Possession58%
20Total Shots9
7Corners0
19Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots9
7On Target5
13Off Target4
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
19Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Jupiler Pro League: Antwerp 1–2 Lokeren

Lokeren beat Antwerp 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on December 21, 2017.

Goals: J. Michel (15'), W. Owusu (59'), G. Hupperts (61').

Lokeren controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at Bosuilstadion in Antwerp.