Antwerp 2–1 Lokeren: Result & Stats

Antwerp

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokeren

Lior Refaelov 83'

Faris Haroun 40'

Steve De Ridder 74'

10/20/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 11Bosuilstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Antwerp51%

×Draw24%

Lokeren25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntwerpExpected goals in this matchLokeren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.12

Antwerp

1.69

Lokeren

1.12

Antwerp creates 51% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 28 away

1.69

creates per match

1.07

1.17

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Antwerp

1.69

Lokeren

1.07

allows per match

Antwerp

1.17

Lokeren

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antwerp+0.00on par

Lokeren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antwerp ↓

Lokeren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Antwerp or draw

75%

Antwerp or Lokeren

76%

Draw or Lokeren

49%

Winning margin

Antwerp wins by 2+

27%

Lokeren wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Antwerp 1+ goals

82%

Antwerp 2+ goals

50%

Antwerp 3+ goals

24%

Lokeren 1+ goals

67%

Lokeren 2+ goals

31%

Lokeren 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Antwerp (draw refunded)

67%

Lokeren (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antwerp at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

Lokeren away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antwerp attack 1.69 + Lokeren defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lokeren attack 1.07 + Antwerp defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Antwerp scores more

51%

level

24%

Lokeren scores more

25%

Antwerp at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Antwerp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Faris Haroun↳ Dieumerci Mbokani

44'

Ari Freyr Skúlason← Geoffrey Bia

52'

Bambo Diaby

56'

Ivo Rodrigues

63'

Killian Overmeire

70'

Geoffry Hairemans← Ivo Rodrigues

74'

Steve De Ridder↳ Marko Miric

78'

Killian Overmeire

78'

Killian Overmeire

78'

Amara Baby← Didier Lamkel Ze

80'

Jonathan Bolingi← William Owusu

81'

Joher Khadim Rassoul← Jose Francisco Cevallos

83'

Lior Refaelov↳ Dieumerci Mbokani

87'

Steve De Ridder

90'

Lior Refaelov

90'

Amara Baby

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AntwerpLokeren

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots6

9Corners2

14Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots6

8On Target3

10Off Target3

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0