Llaneros 0–1 Junior: Result & Stats | Primera A

Llaneros

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Junior

B. Castrillon 36'

3/17/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Llaneros38%

×Draw29%

Junior33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.08

Llaneros

1.18

Junior

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

1.06

creates per match

1.16

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Llaneros

1.06

Junior

1.16

allows per match

Llaneros

1.00

Junior

1.30

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.17scores less

Junior+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

67%

Llaneros or Junior

71%

Draw or Junior

62%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

16%

Junior wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

69%

Llaneros 2+ goals

33%

Llaneros 3+ goals

12%

Junior 1+ goals

66%

Junior 2+ goals

29%

Junior 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

53%

Junior (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Junior away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.06 + Junior defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Junior attack 1.16 + Llaneros defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Llaneros scores more

38%

level

29%

Junior scores more

33%

Llaneros at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Rivera

Junior · D

7.5

Match Events

16'

Cristian Valencia

16'

Cristian ValenciaCard upgrade

16'

Didier Moreno

20'

Duván Mosquera

22'

J. E. Mina Chara← M. Sierra

26'

Daniel Rivera

36'

B. Castrillon↳ C. Bacca

46'

E. Herrera← Y. Mosquera Moreno

58'

Christian Javier Báez

60'

B. Chury← F. Espinal

61'

K. Valencia← M. Rangel

62'

D. Caicedo← C. Bacca

62'

F. S. Angel Bernal← B. Castrillon

71'

T. Gutierrez← G. Paiva

79'

R. Hinojosa← C. Sierra

79'

D. Quinones← D. Mosquera

80'

Titi← J. Enamorado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosJunior

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots3

3Corners3

9Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots3

1On Target1

4Off Target0

3Blocked2

2Inside Box3

6Outside Box0

Passing

38%Possession62%

319Total Passes530

242Accurate Passes457

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2