Junior 2–0 Llaneros: Result & Stats | Primera A

Junior

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Llaneros

J. Canchimbo 42'

C. Bacca 38'

4/19/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 17Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Junior53%

×Draw26%

Llaneros21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.84

Junior

1.52

Llaneros

0.84

Junior creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

0.67

1.02

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Junior

1.38

Llaneros

0.67

allows per match

Junior

1.02

Llaneros

1.66

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more

Llaneros+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw

79%

Junior or Llaneros

74%

Draw or Llaneros

47%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

28%

Llaneros wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

78%

Junior 2+ goals

45%

Junior 3+ goals

20%

Llaneros 1+ goals

57%

Llaneros 2+ goals

21%

Llaneros 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

72%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.66 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Llaneros defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Llaneros attack 0.67 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Junior scores more

53%

level

26%

Llaneros scores more

21%

Junior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

C. Bacca

Junior · F

8.0

Match Events

28'

Luis Muriel

36'

Kevin Rincón

38'

C. Bacca↳ E. Herrera

42'

J. Canchimbo↳ C. Bacca

44'

Yeison Suárez

46'

D. Rivera← Y. Suarez

46'

J. Loaiza← M. Ortega

46'

J. Medranda← K. Rincon

55'

Jhon Vásquez

61'

C. Barrios← K. Perez

65'

L. Marimon← C. Cortes

66'

T. Gutierrez← C. Bacca

74'

G. Paiva← L. Muriel

74'

B. Castrillon← J. Canchimbo

78'

J. Castro← L. Miranda

82'

B. Benitez← A. Moralez

90+2'

Teófilo Gutiérrez

90+1'

Juan David Ríos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorLlaneros

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots15

1.02Expected Goals (xG)1.02

4Corners12

13Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots15

3On Target3

2Off Target7

3Blocked5

6Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

326Total Passes264

256Accurate Passes204

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.40Goals Prevented-0.40

Discipline

13Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3