Junior 4–0 Llaneros: Result & Stats | Primera A

Junior

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Llaneros

Titi 90'

O. E. Cabezas Segura 64' (OG)

J. Guerrero 34'

G. Paiva 2'

8/29/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Junior53%

×Draw26%

Llaneros21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.84

Junior

1.52

Llaneros

0.84

Junior creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

1.38

creates per match

0.67

1.02

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Junior

1.38

Llaneros

0.67

allows per match

Junior

1.02

Llaneros

1.66

+0.69scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Junior+0.69scores more

Llaneros+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior or draw

79%

Junior or Llaneros

74%

Draw or Llaneros

47%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

28%

Llaneros wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

78%

Junior 2+ goals

45%

Junior 3+ goals

20%

Llaneros 1+ goals

57%

Llaneros 2+ goals

21%

Llaneros 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

72%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.66 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.38 + Llaneros defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Llaneros attack 0.67 + Junior defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Junior scores more

53%

level

26%

Llaneros scores more

21%

Junior at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

J. Guerrero

Junior · D

8.2

Match Events

2'

G. Paiva↳ J. Enamorado

34'

J. Guerrero↳ J. Enamorado

41'

Julian Angulo

45+3'

Francisco Meza

45+2'

Yeiler Góez

46'

T. Gutierrez← G. Paiva

46'

H. H. Mena Posada← Y. Goez

46'

M. Rangel← E. Bodencer

46'

B. Uruena← G. Montes

59'

Titi← Y. Chara

59'

F. S. Angel Bernal← D. Moreno

64'

O. E. Cabezas SeguraOwn goal

68'

B. Benitez← M. Sierra

71'

M. Agamez← C. Esparragoza

78'

Miguel Agámez Cabarcas

79'

B. Castrillon← J. Enamorado

79'

E. Restrepo← C. Sierra

90+3'

Brian Benitez

90'

Titi↳ B. Castrillon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorLlaneros

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots9

4Corners6

11Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

473Total Passes321

406Accurate Passes258

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0