Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira: Preview & Prediction

Llaneros

Preview

23:10

Deportivo Pereira

7/24/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Bello Horizonte

Big match

48%

Llaneros

model favours

48%28%24%

90% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Llaneros48%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Pereira24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pereira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.86

Llaneros

1.33

Deportivo Pereira

0.86

Llaneros creates 55% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

0.93

creates per match

0.70

1.03

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Llaneros

0.93

Deportivo Pereira

0.70

allows per match

Llaneros

1.03

Deportivo Pereira

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Deportivo Pereira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

76%

Llaneros or Deportivo Pereira

72%

Draw or Deportivo Pereira

52%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

74%

Llaneros 2+ goals

38%

Llaneros 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

58%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

21%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

66%

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 0.93 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.70 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Llaneros scores more

48%

level

28%

Deportivo Pereira scores more

24%

Llaneros at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 20% of Deportivo Pereira’s matches
Deportivo Pereira raise their game against the top half — 17% wins vs the upper half, only 6% vs the lower
Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.