Llaneros vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
Llaneros40%
Deportivo Pereira30%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Llaneros creates 20% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 131 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Llaneros ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Llaneros at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches
Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Llaneros attack 0.93 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18
Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Llaneros defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Llaneros at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Rionegro Aguilas
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Millonarios
Deportivo Cali
Alianza Petrolera
La Equidad
Bucaramanga
Deportivo Pasto
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
Union Magdalena
HuilaDeportivo Pereira
Chico
Jaguares
EnvigadoRionegro AguilasMillonariosAtletico NacionalAmerica de CaliChicoAlianza PetroleraIndependiente MedellinDeportivo PastoJuniorSanta FeLa EquidadDeportivo PereiraDeportes TolimaDeportivo CaliBucaramangaEnvigadoOnce CaldasJaguaresUnion MagdalenaHuilaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Llaneros host Deportivo Pereira on Tuesday, 1 April 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the Primera A 2020/2021 season.
Primera A: Llaneros 2–1 Deportivo Pereira
Llaneros beat Deportivo Pereira 2-1 in Primera A on April 1, 2025.
Goals: K. Valencia (39', 62'), Y. Quinones (71').
Deportivo Pereira controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 16.
The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.