Deportivo Pereira 0–2 Llaneros: Result & Stats

Deportivo Pereira

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Llaneros

Jhon Vasquez 67' (pen)

D. Mantilla 56'

1/16/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Pereira45%

×Draw27%

Llaneros29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo PereiraExpected goals in this matchLlaneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Deportivo Pereira

1.40

Llaneros

1.06

Deportivo Pereira creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

0.90

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.38

Llaneros

0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Pereira

1.22

Llaneros

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pereira ↓

Llaneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Pereira or draw

71%

Deportivo Pereira or Llaneros

73%

Draw or Llaneros

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+

21%

Llaneros wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals

41%

Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals

17%

Llaneros 1+ goals

65%

Llaneros 2+ goals

29%

Llaneros 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)

61%

Llaneros (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pereira at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pereira attack 1.38 + Llaneros defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Llaneros attack 0.90 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Pereira scores more

45%

level

27%

Llaneros scores more

29%

Deportivo Pereira at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Pereira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Mantilla

Llaneros · M

7.5

Match Events

18'

Jhon VásquezGoal cancelled

40'

Walmer Pacheco

40'

Jhon Vásquez

45+7'

Gustavo Torres

45+6'

Gustavo TorresCard upgrade

46'

J. Ramirez← B. Benitez

51'

Marco Pérez

56'

D. Mantilla↳ J. Medranda

59'

Carlos Cortés

64'

Kelvin OsorioPenalty confirmed

67'

Jhon VasquezPenalty

71'

A. Calderon← M. Perez

71'

J. Rodriguez← E. Moreno

73'

K. Caicedo← Jhon Vasquez

76'

Jorge Bermúdez

81'

E. Laszo← E. Restrepo

81'

J. Blanco← C. Cortes

82'

J. Castro← J. Medranda

83'

L. Moreno← S. Acosta

89'

S. Alzate← W. Pacheco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoLlaneros

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots13

1Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots13

1On Target5

2Off Target5

4Blocked3

6Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

349Total Passes504

287Accurate Passes434

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1