Ljungskile SK 1–1 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Ljungskile SK

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Falkenbergs FF

F. Falkstrand Ransjö 45+1'

G. Aguda 53'

8/6/2023

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 16Uddevalla Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ljungskile SK37%

×Draw24%

Falkenbergs FF38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ljungskile SKExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.50

Ljungskile SK

1.47

Falkenbergs FF

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 45 away

2.04

creates per match

1.91

1.10

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Ljungskile SK

2.04

Falkenbergs FF

1.91

allows per match

Ljungskile SK

1.10

Falkenbergs FF

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungskile SK ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ljungskile SK or draw

62%

Ljungskile SK or Falkenbergs FF

76%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

63%

Winning margin

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

18%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

77%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

43%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

18%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

78%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

44%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

49%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungskile SK at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungskile SK attack 2.04 + Falkenbergs FF defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.47

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.91 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ljungskile SK scores more

37%

level

24%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

38%

Falkenbergs FF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

F. Falkstrand Ransjö

53'

G. Aguda

59'

M. Hussain

66'

R. Gotfredsen Grgic← W. Ärlig

67'

R. Andersson← L. Sibelius

72'

K. Sims

78'

M. Leidewall← L. Lindholm Corner

80'

M. Larsson← L. Borgström

81'

O. Christiansson← L. Farah Shahin

89'

J. T. Kamara

89'

G. Johansson

Ljungskile

Falkenbergs

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: E. Lund Fahlén

78'▲M. Leidewall←▼L. Lindholm Corner

Ljungskile SK substitutes

LeidewallBotesHassellövFay

Manager: C. Andersson

66'▲R. Gotfredsen Grgic←▼W. Ärlig

67'▲R. Andersson←▼L. Sibelius

80'▲M. Larsson←▼L. Borgström

81'▲O. Christiansson←▼L. Farah Shahin

Falkenbergs FF substitutes

GrgicAnderssonLarssonChristianssonAnderssonEmilovBorgryd