Falkenbergs FF 2–3 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Ljungskile SK

G. Aguda 25'

H. Tilly 19'

A. Helm 90+1'

F. Ambrož 62'

I. Shears 47'

9/21/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 23Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Falkenbergs FF57%

×Draw23%

Ljungskile SK21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.02

Falkenbergs FF

1.86

Ljungskile SK

1.02

Falkenbergs FF creates 82% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 89 away

2.24

creates per match

1.52

0.53

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

2.24

Ljungskile SK

1.52

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

0.53

Ljungskile SK

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

79%

Falkenbergs FF or Ljungskile SK

77%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

43%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

33%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

84%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

55%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

28%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

64%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

27%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

74%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 2.24 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ljungskile SK attack 1.52 + Falkenbergs FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

57%

level

23%

Ljungskile SK scores more

21%

Falkenbergs FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

20'

23'

25'

46'

L. Lindholm Corner← J. Liljedahl

47'

I. Shears

62'

F. Ambrož

68'

N. Bertilsson← T. Stålheden

68'

O. Lindberg← R. Gotfredsen Grgic

73'

R. Andersson← C. Carlsson

86'

D. Svernfors← M. Uzel

86'

M. Abdallah Hussain← F. Ambrož

86'

S. Bosnić← J. Zetterlund

90+1'

S. Bosnic

90+1'

A. Helm

Falkenbergs

Ljungskile

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: C. Andersson

68'▲N. Bertilsson←▼T. Stålheden

68'▲O. Lindberg←▼R. Gotfredsen Grgic

73'▲R. Andersson←▼C. Carlsson

Falkenbergs FF substitutes

BertilssonLindbergAnderssonJohanssonLillienbergSibeliusLarsson

Manager: E. Lund Fahlén

46'▲L. Lindholm Corner←▼J. Liljedahl

86'▲D. Svernfors←▼M. Uzel

86'▲M. Abdallah Hussain←▼F. Ambrož

86'▲S. Bosnić←▼J. Zetterlund

Ljungskile SK substitutes

CornerSvernforsHussainBosnićKingsleyHermanssonHarrison

Ettan - Södra: Falkenbergs FF 2–3 Ljungskile SK

Ljungskile SK beat Falkenbergs FF 3-2 in Ettan - Södra on September 21, 2024.

Goals: H. Tilly (19'), G. Aguda (25'), I. Shears (47'), F. Ambrož (62'), A. Helm (90+1').

The match was played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena in Falkenberg.

Falkenbergs FF vs Ljungskile SK — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Falkenbergs FF 2–3 Ljungskile SK