Falkenbergs FF 1–1 Ljungskile SK: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ljungskile SK

H. Komano 43'

G. Mensah 87'

4/6/2026

Superettan · Round 1Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Falkenbergs FF48%

×Draw25%

Ljungskile SK27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchLjungskile SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

Falkenbergs FF

1.63

Ljungskile SK

1.15

Falkenbergs FF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

1.64

creates per match

0.96

1.33

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.64

Ljungskile SK

0.96

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.33

Ljungskile SK

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Ljungskile SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Ljungskile SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

73%

Falkenbergs FF or Ljungskile SK

75%

Draw or Ljungskile SK

52%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

25%

Ljungskile SK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

80%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

48%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

22%

Ljungskile SK 1+ goals

68%

Ljungskile SK 2+ goals

32%

Ljungskile SK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

64%

Ljungskile SK (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Ljungskile SK away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.64 + Ljungskile SK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ljungskile SK attack 0.96 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

48%

level

25%

Ljungskile SK scores more

27%

Falkenbergs FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Falkenbergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

H. Komano

Falkenbergs FF · F

7.6

Match Events

10'

Godwin Aguda

43'

H. Komano↳ A. Andersson

49'

William Nilsson

55'

M. Solheim← L. Lindholm Corner

65'

E. Mohammad← H. Kallstrom

67'

H. Borstam← D. Frisk

68'

A. Boren← I. Shears

76'

Alexander Salo

83'

N. Lundgren← G. Johansson

83'

N. Hansson← O. Lindberg

85'

I. Seidu← D. Lagerlof

87'

G. Mensah↳ F. Ambroz

90+1'

W. Videhult← A. Andersson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FalkenbergsLjungskile

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots15

0.56Expected Goals (xG)1.58

5Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots15

1On Target3

3Off Target6

0Blocked5

4Inside Box12

1Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

362Total Passes397

260Accurate Passes298

72%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1