Liverpool 0–0 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Liverpool

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chelsea

1/21/2023

Premier League · Round 21Anfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Liverpool44%

×Draw24%

Chelsea32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiverpoolExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.36

Liverpool

1.63

Chelsea

1.36

Liverpool creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

1.86

creates per match

1.59

1.14

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Liverpool

1.86

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

Liverpool

1.14

Chelsea

1.39

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Liverpool+0.11scores more

Chelsea-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Liverpool or draw

68%

Liverpool or Chelsea

76%

Draw or Chelsea

56%

Winning margin

Liverpool wins by 2+

22%

Chelsea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Liverpool 1+ goals

80%

Liverpool 2+ goals

48%

Liverpool 3+ goals

22%

Chelsea 1+ goals

74%

Chelsea 2+ goals

39%

Chelsea 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Liverpool (draw refunded)

58%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.39 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool attack 1.86 + Chelsea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Liverpool defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Liverpool scores more

44%

level

24%

Chelsea scores more

32%

Liverpool at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Thiago Silva

Chelsea · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

Kai HavertzGoal cancelled

34'

55'

63'

66'

72'

T. Alexander-Arnold← J. Milner

80'

Trevoh Chalobah

81'

P. Aubameyang← K. Havertz

81'

César Azpilicueta← T. Chalobah

82'

C. Jones← H. Elliott

82'

Fabinho← Stefan Bajčetić

82'

J. Henderson← C. Gakpo

82'

C. Chukwuemeka← M. Mount

90'

Curtis Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LiverpoolChelsea

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots11

1.40Expected Goals (xG)1.65

5Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target2

6Off Target6

6Blocked3

10Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

477Total Passes540

375Accurate Passes437

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1