Chelsea 2–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Liverpool

C. Pulisic 45+1'

M. Kovačić 42'

Mohamed Salah 26'

S. Mané 9'

1/2/2022

Premier League · Round 21Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Chelsea42%

×Draw24%

Liverpool34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.45

Chelsea

1.62

Liverpool

1.45

Chelsea creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.92

creates per match

1.61

1.28

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Chelsea

1.92

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Liverpool

1.32

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Chelsea-0.33scores less

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

66%

Chelsea or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

58%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

21%

Liverpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

80%

Chelsea 2+ goals

48%

Chelsea 3+ goals

22%

Liverpool 1+ goals

77%

Liverpool 2+ goals

42%

Liverpool 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

55%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.92 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.62

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chelsea scores more

42%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

34%

Chelsea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Kovačić

Chelsea · M

8.5

Match Events

1'

Sadio Mané

9'

S. Mané

17'

Christian Pulišić

26'

Mohamed Salah↳ T. Alexander-Arnold

32'

Mason MountCard reviewed

42'

M. Kovačić

43'

Mateo KovačićGoal confirmed

45+1'

C. Pulisic↳ N. Kanté

69'

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain← Diogo Jota

69'

N. Keïta← J. Milner

70'

Jorginho← T. Chalobah

79'

C. Hudson-Odoi← K. Havertz

83'

Ibrahima Konaté

90'

C. Jones← S. Mané

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaLiverpool

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots10

6Corners7

5Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target6

5Off Target2

4Blocked2

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

574Total Passes463

473Accurate Passes355

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Liverpool

Chelsea and Liverpool drew 2-2 in Premier League on January 2, 2022.

Goals: S. Mané (9'), Mohamed Salah (26'), M. Kovačić (42'), C. Pulisic (45+1').

Chelsea controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.

Chelsea vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chelsea vs Liverpool