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Chelsea vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Liverpool
Liverpool
4/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Chelsea40%
×Draw24%
Liverpool36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.59
Liverpool
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.89
Liverpool
1.68

allows per match

Chelsea
1.33
Liverpool
1.29

finishing

Chelsea-0.39scores less
Liverpool+0.19scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Liverpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
64%
Chelsea or Liverpool
76%
Draw or Liverpool
60%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
20%
Liverpool wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
80%
Chelsea 2+ goals
47%
Chelsea 3+ goals
21%
Liverpool 1+ goals
78%
Liverpool 2+ goals
44%
Liverpool 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
53%
Liverpool (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.33 · 26 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.29 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.89 + Liverpool defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.59

Liverpool attack 1.68 + Chelsea defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chelsea scores more
40%
level
24%
Liverpool scores more
36%

Chelsea at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
K. KoulibalyChelseaChelsea · D
8.2

Match Events

25'
Kai HavertzGoal cancelled
46'
Joël Matip
51'
Kai HavertzGoal cancelled
56'
Konstantinos Tsimikas
61'
Curtis Jones
65'
Mohamed Salah← Roberto Firmino
66'
A. Robertson← K. Tsimikas
68'
Mateo Kovačić
70'
C. Gallagher← N. Kanté
74'
Fabinho
78'
M. Mudryk← B. Chilwell
79'
C. Gakpo← C. Jones
79'
J. Milner← D. Núñez
85'
R. Sterling← João Félix

Possession

50%Chelsea

Shots

12Chelsea

Pass accuracy

50%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaLiverpool
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots7
2.17Expected Goals (xG)0.35
3Corners5
6Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots7
3On Target4
7Off Target0
2Blocked3
9Inside Box2
3Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
522Total Passes537
437Accurate Passes449
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
4Offsides3

Premier League: Chelsea 0–0 Liverpool

Chelsea and Liverpool drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2023.

Chelsea controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.