Lincoln 0–4 Sunderland: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Sunderland

C. Wyke 72', 25'

J. Diamond 42'

G. Leadbitter 16' (pen)

12/12/2020

League One · Round 17LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lincoln40%

×Draw27%

Sunderland33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Lincoln

1.29

Sunderland

1.15

Lincoln creates 12% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 86 away

1.49

creates per match

1.30

0.99

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

67%

Lincoln or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

60%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

18%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

72%

Lincoln 2+ goals

37%

Lincoln 3+ goals

14%

Sunderland 1+ goals

68%

Sunderland 2+ goals

32%

Sunderland 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

55%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more

40%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

33%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Wyke

Sunderland · F

8.5

Match Events

16'

G. LeadbitterPenalty

19'

Lewis Montsma

25'

C. Wyke↳ C. McFadzean

27'

Jack Diamond

42'

J. Diamond↳ A. McGeady

46'

C. Maguire← J. Diamond

52'

54'

68'

72'

76'

E. Embleton← A. McGeady

77'

D. Sanderson← C. McLaughlin

82'

R. Howarth← B. Johnson

82'

W. Grigg← C. Wyke

90'

Grant Leadbitter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnSunderland

Overview

41%Possession59%

6Total Shots14

3Corners3

12Fouls20

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target9

5Off Target4

0Blocked1

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

359Total Passes512

247Accurate Passes409

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2