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Lincoln vs Huddersfield — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
A. Reach 69'
L. Castledine 61'
1/1/2026League OneLeague One · Round 24LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln41%
×Draw24%
Huddersfield35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.63
Huddersfield
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Huddersfield
1.68

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Huddersfield
1.26

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Huddersfield-0.04on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
65%
Lincoln or Huddersfield
76%
Draw or Huddersfield
59%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
21%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
80%
Lincoln 2+ goals
48%
Lincoln 3+ goals
22%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
78%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
44%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Huddersfield defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.63

Huddersfield attack 1.68 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lincoln scores more
41%
level
24%
Huddersfield scores more
35%

Lincoln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. ReachLincolnLincoln · M
8.0

Match Events

-5'
Alfie May
61'
L. Castledine↳ A. May
62'
Conor McGrandles
69'
A. Reach
75'
J. Moylan← R. Hackett-Fairchild
75'
J. Obikwu← R. Street
81'
Lasse Sørensen
82'
D. Kasumu← L. Castledine
86'
Adam Reach
89'
B. Wiles← M. Harness
90'
Freddie Draper
90+1'
D. Jefferies← I. Varfolomeev
90+4'
D. Charles← A. May

Possession

53%Lincoln

Shots

18Lincoln

Pass accuracy

49%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnHuddersfield
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots6
2.70Expected Goals (xG)1.08
4Corners3
11Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots6
4On Target3
7Off Target1
7Blocked2
13Inside Box5
5Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
395Total Passes349
261Accurate Passes244
66%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

League One: Lincoln 1–1 Huddersfield

Lincoln and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in League One on January 1, 2026.

Goals: L. Castledine (61'), A. Reach (69').

Lincoln controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at LNER stadium in Lincoln.