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Huddersfield vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lincoln
Lincoln
C. Marshall 89'
B. Spencer 49'
B. Cadamarteri 25'
B. House 15'
12/14/2024League OneLeague One · Round 20John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Huddersfield48%
×Draw25%
Lincoln27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.60
Lincoln
1.13

Huddersfield creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.95
Lincoln
1.32

allows per match

Huddersfield
0.94
Lincoln
1.25

finishing

Huddersfield+0.13scores more
Lincoln+0.51scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
73%
Huddersfield or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
52%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
25%
Lincoln wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
80%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
47%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
22%
Lincoln 1+ goals
68%
Lincoln 2+ goals
31%
Lincoln 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
64%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.95 + Lincoln defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lincoln attack 1.32 + Huddersfield defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huddersfield scores more
48%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
27%

Huddersfield at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
B. SpencerHuddersfieldHuddersfield · D
8.2

Match Events

15'
B. House↳ T. Darikwa
25'
B. Cadamarteri↳ J. Makama
42'
B. Spencer← M. Pearson
46'
L. Sørensen← O. Turton
46'
C. Marshall← J. Ruffels
49'
B. Spencer↳ J. Koroma
59'
Tendayi Darikwa
64'
E. Hamilton← J. Makama
72'
F. Draper← B. Cadamarteri
73'
J. Headley← L. Sørensen
73'
F. Ladapo← D. Ward
75'
George Wickens
81'
D. Jefferies← B. House
89'
C. Marshall↳ B. Spencer
90+6'
Nigel Cello Lonwijk

Possession

58%Huddersfield

Shots

11Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

52%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldLincoln
Overview
58%Possession42%
11Total Shots9
6Corners7
7Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target3
2Off Target4
6Blocked2
6Inside Box8
5Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
441Total Passes320
343Accurate Passes232
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Lincoln

Huddersfield and Lincoln drew 2-2 in League One on December 14, 2024.

Goals: B. House (15'), B. Cadamarteri (25'), B. Spencer (49'), C. Marshall (89').

Huddersfield controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.