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Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
R. One 88'
4/3/2026League OneLeague One · Round 41LNER stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Lincoln53%
×Draw22%
AFC Wimbledon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.96
AFC Wimbledon
1.29

Lincoln creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.95
AFC Wimbledon
1.10

allows per match

Lincoln
1.47
AFC Wimbledon
1.96

finishing

Lincoln+0.38scores more
AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
75%
Lincoln or AFC Wimbledon
78%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
31%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
86%
Lincoln 2+ goals
58%
Lincoln 3+ goals
31%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
72%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
37%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
68%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 9 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.95 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.96

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Lincoln defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more
53%
level
22%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
25%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. BishopAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · G
7.9

Match Events

46'
R. Nkeng← R. Johnson
52'
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
59'
Joe Lewis
60'
R. One← R. Street
61'
Antwoine Hackford
66'
O. Foyo← A. Hackford
67'
I. Varfolomeev← T. Bayliss
76'
Nathan Bishop
81'
D. Jefferies← R. Hackett-Fairchild
81'
A. Lloyd← B. House
81'
D. Elerewe← T. Darikwa
87'
K. Jennings← Z. Nelson
88'
R. One↳ R. Towler
90+2'
Omar Bugiel
90'
N. Asiimwe← P. Bauer

Possession

48%Lincoln

Shots

8Lincoln

Pass accuracy

50%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnAFC
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots9
2Corners7
12Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots9
4On Target1
3Off Target5
1Blocked3
5Inside Box3
3Outside Box6
Passing
48%Possession52%
311Total Passes319
182Accurate Passes189
59%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon

Lincoln beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League One on April 3, 2026.

Goals: R. One (88').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at LNER stadium in Lincoln.