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AFC Wimbledon vs Lincoln — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
N. Asiimwe 77'
M. Stevens 41' (pen)
8/9/2025League OneLeague One · Round 2The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AFC Wimbledon30%
×Draw25%
Lincoln44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.21
Lincoln
1.52

Lincoln creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.18
Lincoln
1.32

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.71
Lincoln
1.25

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.08on par
Lincoln+0.51scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
56%
AFC Wimbledon or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
70%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
13%
Lincoln wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
70%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
34%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
12%
Lincoln 1+ goals
78%
Lincoln 2+ goals
45%
Lincoln 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
41%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 10 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.18 + Lincoln defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lincoln attack 1.32 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
44%

Lincoln at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
N. AsiimweAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · M
8.3

Match Events

23'
Adam Jackson
41'
M. StevensPenalty
46'
T. Hamer← R. Street
59'
D. Orsi-Dadomo← M. Hippolyte
60'
A. Hackford← M. Stevens
63'
F. Draper← J. Collins
64'
E. Hamilton← J. Moylan
70'
E. Ring← C. McGrandles
75'
C. Maycock← M. Browne
75'
A. Sasu← S. Seddon
77'
N. Asiimwe
79'
Z. Okoro← R. Hackett-Fairchild
90+2'
R. Harbottle← J. Lewis

Possession

55%AFC

Shots

16AFC

Pass accuracy

54%AFC

Statistics

AFCLincoln
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots2
1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.20
6Corners3
11Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots2
3On Target0
5Off Target2
8Blocked0
12Inside Box1
4Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
375Total Passes312
282Accurate Passes198
75%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls15
0Red Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: AFC Wimbledon 2–0 Lincoln

AFC Wimbledon beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on August 9, 2025.

Goals: M. Stevens (41' pen), N. Asiimwe (77').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 2.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.