AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Lincoln: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

E. Bishop 84'

L. Fiorini 38'

3/12/2022

League One · Round 38The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

AFC Wimbledon29%

×Draw25%

Lincoln45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.52

AFC Wimbledon

1.17

Lincoln

1.52

Lincoln creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.22

creates per match

1.38

1.66

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.22

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.66

Lincoln

1.13

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

55%

AFC Wimbledon or Lincoln

75%

Draw or Lincoln

71%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Lincoln wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

69%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

33%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

11%

Lincoln 1+ goals

78%

Lincoln 2+ goals

45%

Lincoln 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

39%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lincoln attack 1.38 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

29%

level

25%

Lincoln scores more

45%

Lincoln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Wright

Lincoln · G

8.3

Match Events

26'

P. Osew← C. Alexander

38'

L. Fiorini

60'

Adedapo Awokoya-Mebude

62'

E. Bishop← L. Sørensen

66'

Lee Brown

66'

Brooke Norton-Cuffy

69'

Lewis Fiorini

71'

C. Bramall← M. Whittaker

72'

76'

78'

79'

82'

A. Hartigan← L. McCormick

83'

A. Jackson← T. Eyoma

84'

E. Bishop↳ J. Marquis

88'

Anthony Hartigan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCLincoln

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots7

10Corners2

17Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target5

6Off Target1

2Blocked1

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

304Total Passes269

189Accurate Passes155

62%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls13

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides4