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Lincoln vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
CANC
15:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
3/28/2020League OneLeague One · Round 40Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln55%
×Draw22%
AFC Wimbledon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.96
AFC Wimbledon
1.20

Lincoln creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.92

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
AFC Wimbledon+0.10scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
77%
Lincoln or AFC Wimbledon
78%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
45%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
32%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
86%
Lincoln 2+ goals
58%
Lincoln 3+ goals
31%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
70%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
34%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lincoln scores more
55%
level
22%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
23%

Lincoln at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lincoln face AFC Wimbledon (League One)

League One returns with Lincoln hosting AFC Wimbledon. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lincoln host AFC Wimbledon at Sincil Bank.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.