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Limavady United vs Ballinamallard United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Limavady United
Limavady United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Limavady United40%
×Draw25%
Ballinamallard United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limavady United
1.53
Ballinamallard United
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Limavady United
1.56
Ballinamallard United
0.50

allows per match

Limavady United
2.33
Ballinamallard United
1.50

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par
Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Ballinamallard United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw
65%
Limavady United or Ballinamallard United
75%
Draw or Ballinamallard United
60%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+
20%
Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals
78%
Limavady United 2+ goals
45%
Limavady United 3+ goals
20%
Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
76%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
41%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)
53%
Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.56 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ballinamallard United attack 0.50 + Limavady United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Limavady United scores more
40%
level
25%
Ballinamallard United scores more
35%

Limavady United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Limavady United 0–0 Ballinamallard United

Limavady United and Ballinamallard United drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.