Limavady United 4–2 Ballinamallard United

Limavady United

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ballinamallard United

11/29/2025

League #407 · Round 18The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limavady United42%

×Draw24%

Ballinamallard United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Limavady UnitedExpected goals in this matchBallinamallard United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.39

Limavady United

1.59

Ballinamallard United

1.39

Limavady United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.48

creates per match

1.57

1.21

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Limavady United

1.48

Ballinamallard United

1.57

allows per match

Limavady United

1.21

Ballinamallard United

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Ballinamallard United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw

67%

Limavady United or Ballinamallard United

76%

Draw or Ballinamallard United

58%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+

21%

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals

80%

Limavady United 2+ goals

47%

Limavady United 3+ goals

21%

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals

75%

Ballinamallard United 2+ goals

40%

Ballinamallard United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)

56%

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.48 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ballinamallard United attack 1.57 + Limavady United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Limavady United scores more

42%

level

24%

Ballinamallard United scores more

33%

Limavady United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff