Ballinamallard United 1–1 Limavady United

Ballinamallard United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Limavady United

T. Connolly 68'

L. Boyd 78'

8/23/2025

League #407 · Round 3Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ballinamallard United34%

×Draw25%

Limavady United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballinamallard UnitedExpected goals in this matchLimavady United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.52

Ballinamallard United

1.37

Limavady United

1.52

Limavady United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 29 away

1.67

creates per match

1.72

1.33

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Ballinamallard United

1.67

Limavady United

1.72

allows per match

Ballinamallard United

1.33

Limavady United

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Limavady United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw

59%

Ballinamallard United or Limavady United

75%

Draw or Limavady United

66%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+

15%

Limavady United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals

75%

Ballinamallard United 2+ goals

40%

Ballinamallard United 3+ goals

16%

Limavady United 1+ goals

78%

Limavady United 2+ goals

45%

Limavady United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)

46%

Limavady United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Limavady United away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 1.67 + Limavady United defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Limavady United attack 1.72 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more

34%

level

25%

Limavady United scores more

41%

Limavady United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'

T. Connolly

78'

L. Boyd

Ballinamallard

Limavady

Manager: M. Stafford

Manager: P. Owens