Lillestrom 2–1 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stromsgodset

V. Dragsnes 43'

G. Åsen 13'

G. Valsvik 80'

9/10/2022

Eliteserien · Round 22Åråsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lillestrom54%

×Draw22%

Stromsgodset24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.20

Lillestrom

1.91

Stromsgodset

1.20

Lillestrom creates 59% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.74

creates per match

1.06

1.33

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.74

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.33

Stromsgodset

2.08

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Lillestrom-0.11scores less

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

76%

Lillestrom or Stromsgodset

78%

Draw or Stromsgodset

46%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

31%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

85%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

57%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

30%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

70%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

34%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

69%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.74 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.91

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Lillestrom defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lillestrom scores more

54%

level

22%

Stromsgodset scores more

24%

Lillestrom at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Åsen

Lillestrom · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

G. Åsen↳ Y. Ibrahimaj

43'

V. Dragsnes↳ M. Knudsen

46'

S. Hanssen← L. Vilsvik

56'

J. Braut Brunes← I. Jack

64'

M. Lundemo← C. Rösler

76'

H. Friðjónsson← T. Olsen

80'

G. Valsvik↳ H. Stengel

81'

E. Boahene← K. Tokstad

81'

A. Thorsen← T. Grøgaard

84'

Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson

88'

A. Şimşir← Y. Ibrahimaj

90+4'

Jonatan Braut Brunes

90+3'

Ernest Boahene

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromStromsgodset

Overview

61%Possession39%

22Total Shots8

9Corners2

7Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots8

6On Target2

11Off Target3

5Blocked3

14Inside Box7

8Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

467Total Passes303

392Accurate Passes208

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1