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Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar — Friendlies 2026

Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein
CANC
00:00
Gibraltar
Gibraltar
3/29/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Liechtenstein33%
×Draw27%
Gibraltar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liechtenstein
1.16
Gibraltar
1.28

Gibraltar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Liechtenstein
0.14
Gibraltar
0.00

allows per match

Liechtenstein
2.57
Gibraltar
2.17

finishing

Liechtenstein+0.00on par
Gibraltar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liechtenstein ↓

Gibraltar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Liechtenstein or draw
61%
Liechtenstein or Gibraltar
73%
Draw or Gibraltar
67%

Winning margin

Liechtenstein wins by 2+
14%
Gibraltar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Liechtenstein 1+ goals
69%
Liechtenstein 2+ goals
32%
Liechtenstein 3+ goals
11%
Gibraltar 1+ goals
72%
Gibraltar 2+ goals
37%
Gibraltar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)
46%
Gibraltar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liechtenstein at home — creates 0.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Gibraltar away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liechtenstein attack 0.14 + Gibraltar defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Gibraltar attack 0.00 + Liechtenstein defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liechtenstein scores more
33%
level
27%
Gibraltar scores more
39%

Gibraltar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gibraltar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liechtenstein vs Gibraltar — Match Preview

Liechtenstein face Gibraltar on March 29, 2020 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.