Gibraltar 2–2 Liechtenstein: Result & Stats

Gibraltar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Liechtenstein

J. Scanlon 90+7'

L. Walker 8'

4 N. Hasler 90+14' (pen)

F. Sağlam 53'

9/8/2024

UEFA Nations League · League D - 2Europa Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gibraltar34%

×Draw26%

Liechtenstein40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GibraltarExpected goals in this matchLiechtenstein

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.39

Gibraltar

1.27

Liechtenstein

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

0.78

creates per match

0.88

1.89

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Gibraltar

0.78

Liechtenstein

0.88

allows per match

Gibraltar

1.89

Liechtenstein

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par

Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Liechtenstein →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw

60%

Gibraltar or Liechtenstein

74%

Draw or Liechtenstein

66%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+

15%

Liechtenstein wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals

72%

Gibraltar 2+ goals

36%

Gibraltar 3+ goals

14%

Liechtenstein 1+ goals

75%

Liechtenstein 2+ goals

40%

Liechtenstein 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)

46%

Liechtenstein (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 0.78 + Liechtenstein defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.27

Liechtenstein attack 0.88 + Gibraltar defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gibraltar scores more

34%

level

26%

Liechtenstein scores more

40%

Liechtenstein at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liechtenstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Scanlon

Gibraltar · M

7.2

Match Events

-5'

-5'

-5'

-5'

8'

16'

25'

47'

Jayce Mascarenhas-Olivero

53'

F. Sağlam↳ M. Büchel

55'

Graeme Torrilla

55'

Marcel Büchel

57'

J. Bartolo← T. De Barr

59'

Kenny Kindle

66'

Ethan Britto

66'

Livio Meier

73'

J. Valarino← E. Jolley

75'

A. Netzer← F. Notaro

75'

Marco Marxer← K. Kindle

81'

Aron Sele

87'

F. Wolfinger← M. Büchel

87'

M. Marxer← M. Göppel

89'

Jayce Mascarenhas-OliveroPenalty cancelled

90+2'

Louie Annesley

90'

Andrin Netzer

90+13'

Niklas BeckPenalty confirmed

90+4'

Aron SeleGoal cancelled

90+10'

L. Casciaro← L. Walker

90+1'

S. Lüchinger← L. Meier

90+7'

J. Scanlon↳ J. Valarino

90+14'

4 N. HaslerPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GibraltarLiechtenstein

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots6

4Corners3

14Fouls24

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target3

7Off Target2

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

267Total Passes354

175Accurate Passes274

66%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls24

6Yellow Cards8

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein

Gibraltar and Liechtenstein drew 2-2 in UEFA Nations League on September 8, 2024.

Goals: L. Walker (8'), F. Sağlam (53'), J. Scanlon (90+7'), 4 N. Hasler (90+14' pen).

Liechtenstein controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Europa Sports Park in Gibraltar.

Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein