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Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein — Friendlies 2026

Gibraltar
Gibraltar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein
L. Walker 21' (pen)
R. Chipolina 14'
11/16/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Victoria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Gibraltar69%
×Draw21%
Liechtenstein9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gibraltar
1.79
Liechtenstein
0.49

Gibraltar creates 265% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Gibraltar
1.00
Liechtenstein
0.42

allows per match

Gibraltar
0.57
Liechtenstein
2.58

finishing

Gibraltar+0.00on par
Liechtenstein+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gibraltar ↓

Liechtenstein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gibraltar or draw
91%
Gibraltar or Liechtenstein
79%
Draw or Liechtenstein
31%

Winning margin

Gibraltar wins by 2+
41%
Liechtenstein wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gibraltar 1+ goals
83%
Gibraltar 2+ goals
53%
Gibraltar 3+ goals
26%
Liechtenstein 1+ goals
39%
Liechtenstein 2+ goals
9%
Liechtenstein 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gibraltar (draw refunded)
88%
Liechtenstein (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gibraltar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Liechtenstein away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gibraltar attack 1.00 + Liechtenstein defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Liechtenstein attack 0.42 + Gibraltar defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gibraltar scores more
69%
level
21%
Liechtenstein scores more
9%

Gibraltar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gibraltar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
L. Traber
14'
R. Chipolina
20'
A. Malin
21'
L. WalkerPenalty
22'
M. Marxer← J. Hofer
46'
E. Jolley← J. Sergeant
46'
J. Ospelt← B. Büchel
61'
M. Mikus← N. Hasler
61'
N. Beck← L. Traber
62'
S. Luchinger
71'
R. Styche← T. De Barr
71'
N. Frick← D. Salanović
71'
J. Lorenz← S. Lüchinger
75'
J. Valarino← L. Casciaro
77'
M. Stocklasa
82'
S. Yildiz
82'
A. Sele
82'
G. Torrilla
82'
L. Annesley
86'
J. Chipolina← L. Walker
86'
J. Coombes← E. Britto
86'
N. Pozo← L. Annesley

Possession

58%Gibraltar

Shots

13Gibraltar

Statistics

GibraltarLiechtenstein
Overview
58%Possession42%
13Total Shots10
6Corners1
9Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots10
4On Target6
5Off Target2
4Blocked2
Passing
58%Possession42%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls8
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein

Gibraltar beat Liechtenstein 2-0 in Friendlies on November 16, 2022.

Goals: R. Chipolina (14'), L. Walker (21' pen).

Gibraltar controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Victoria Stadium in Gibraltar.