Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Atletico Nacional

Libertad Asuncion

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Nacional

Óscar Cardozo 55'

2/22/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundDr. Nicolás Leoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Libertad Asuncion51%

×Draw25%

Atletico Nacional24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.99

Libertad Asuncion

1.56

Atletico Nacional

0.99

Libertad Asuncion creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

1.57

creates per match

0.69

1.30

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.57

Atletico Nacional

0.69

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.30

Atletico Nacional

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

76%

Libertad Asuncion or Atletico Nacional

75%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

49%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

26%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

79%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

46%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

68%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.57 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atletico Nacional attack 0.69 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

51%

level

25%

Atletico Nacional scores more

24%

Libertad Asuncion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Óscar Cardozo

Libertad Asuncion · F

7.8

Match Events

5'

36'

42'

51'

54'

55'

Óscar Cardozo↳ Paulo Da Silva

63'

Cristian Riveros← Óscar Cardozo

71'

Jorge Recalde← Rodrigo Rivero

73'

Yerson Candelo← Jeison Lucumí

77'

Juan Pablo Ramírez← Brayan Rovira

78'

Joseph Canale

83'

Aldo Leão Ramírez← Vladimir Hernández

86'

Edgar Benitez← Antonio Bareiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LibertadAtletico

Overview

33%Possession67%

14Total Shots16

4Corners7

13Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots16

7On Target2

4Off Target8

3Blocked6

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

265Total Passes541

182Accurate Passes449

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0