Atletico Nacional 1–0 Libertad Asuncion

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

Atletico Nacional

1.47

Libertad Asuncion

0.85

Atletico Nacional creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

0.71

0.99

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.40

Libertad Asuncion

0.71

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.99

Libertad Asuncion

1.54

+0.80scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.80scores more

Libertad Asuncion-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

78%

Atletico Nacional or Libertad Asuncion

73%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

26%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

18%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

57%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

21%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

70%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.54 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.40 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.71 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

52%

level

27%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

22%

Atletico Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Pablo Ceppelini

Atletico Nacional · M

7.6

Match Events

-1'

Hernán BarcosPenalty

-1'

Juan Pablo RamírezPenalty

-1'

Jeison LucumíPenalty

-1'

Pablo CeppeliniPenalty

-1'

Daniel BocanegraMissed penalty

-1'

Sergio AquinoPenalty

-1'

Adrián MartínezPenalty

-1'

Ayrton CougoPenalty

-1'

Edgar BenitezPenalty

-1'

Jorge RecaldePenalty

14'

Rodrigo Rivero

34'

Jeison Lucumí↳ Hernán Barcos

40'

Adrián Martínez← Rodrigo Rivero

44'

44'

56'

62'

70'

Juan Pablo Ramírez← Vladimir Hernández

70'

Aldo Leão Ramírez← Sebastian Gomez

85'

Nicolás Hernández

85'

Luis Cardozo

85'

Jorge Recalde← Óscar Cardozo

86'

Blas Caceres

90'

Edgar Benitez← Antonio Bareiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoLibertad

Overview

76%Possession24%

16Total Shots4

12Corners2

15Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots4

3On Target0

9Off Target4

4Blocked0

7Inside Box1

9Outside Box3

Passing

76%Possession24%

547Total Passes161

466Accurate Passes88

85%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls19

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Libertad Asuncion

Atletico Nacional beat Libertad Asuncion 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on March 1, 2019.

Goals: Hernán Barcos (-1' pen), Juan Pablo Ramírez (-1' pen), Jeison Lucumí (-1' pen, 34'), Pablo Ceppelini (-1' pen), Sergio Aquino (-1' pen), Adrián Martínez (-1' pen), Ayrton Cougo (-1' pen), Edgar Benitez (-1' pen), Jorge Recalde (-1' pen).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (76%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.

Atletico Nacional vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Libertad Asuncion