Atletico Nacional 4–1 Libertad Asuncion

Atletico Nacional

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Libertad Asuncion

J. Duque 74'

J. Alvez 58'

B. Perlaza 51'

J. Barrera 16'

J. Enciso 2'

4/15/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 3rd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional52%

×Draw27%

Libertad Asuncion22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

Atletico Nacional

1.47

Libertad Asuncion

0.85

Atletico Nacional creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

0.71

0.99

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.40

Libertad Asuncion

0.71

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.99

Libertad Asuncion

1.54

+0.80scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.80scores more

Libertad Asuncion-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

78%

Atletico Nacional or Libertad Asuncion

73%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

48%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

26%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

18%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

57%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

21%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

70%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.99 · 5 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.54 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.40 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.71 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

52%

level

27%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

22%

Atletico Nacional at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Andrade

Atletico Nacional · M

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Alexander Barboza

2'

J. Enciso↳ H. Villalba

16'

28'

46'

46'

51'

B. Perlaza↳ Y. Candelo

58'

J. Alvez

61'

G. Perea← J. Alvez

65'

P. Delvalle← I. Franco

65'

A. Oviedo← A. Barboza

71'

J. Marulanda← J. Barrera

74'

J. Duque↳ A. Andrade

77'

Aldair Quintana

79'

A. Martínez← S. Ferreira

80'

B. Córdoba← Y. Candelo

80'

B. Cáceres← R. Martínez

90+1'

Daniel Bocanegra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoLibertad

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots17

5Corners0

12Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots17

5On Target3

4Off Target8

2Blocked6

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box12

Passing

57%Possession43%

463Total Passes341

380Accurate Passes245

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides3