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Leyton Orient vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
Preview
14:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
9/19/2026League OneLeague One · Round 7Brisbane Road
Big match
44%
Leyton Orient
model favours
44%26%30%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leyton Orient44%
×Draw26%
Stevenage30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.42
Stevenage
1.13

Leyton Orient creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.06
Stevenage
1.01

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.25
Stevenage
1.77

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.06on par
Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
70%
Leyton Orient or Stevenage
74%
Draw or Stevenage
56%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
21%
Stevenage wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
76%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
41%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
17%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
31%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
59%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.06 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Leyton Orient defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
44%
level
26%
Stevenage scores more
30%

Leyton Orient at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Leyton Orient sit 20, Stevenage 6 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Leyton Orient
Balanced
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
53%PossessionBiggest gap45%
71%Pass accuracy64%
11.3Shots10.6
1.07xG1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Leyton OrientStevenage

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Leyton Orient
4
Draws
3
Stevenage
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 30%
2–12–31–00–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Orient
LLWWD
Stevenage
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Leyton Orient host Stevenage

September 19, 2026: Leyton Orient take on Stevenage in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Leyton Orient host Stevenage at Brisbane Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.