Leyton Orient 0–3 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Stevenage

N. Freeman 79'

D. Sweeney 44'

C. McNeill 21'

9/2/2023

League One · Round 6Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Leyton Orient42%

×Draw26%

Stevenage31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Leyton Orient

1.40

Stevenage

1.16

Leyton Orient creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.18

creates per match

1.01

1.31

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.18

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Stevenage

1.61

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Leyton Orient-0.01on par

Stevenage+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

69%

Leyton Orient or Stevenage

74%

Draw or Stevenage

58%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

20%

Stevenage wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

41%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

17%

Stevenage 1+ goals

69%

Stevenage 2+ goals

32%

Stevenage 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

58%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.18 + Stevenage defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Leyton Orient defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

42%

level

26%

Stevenage scores more

31%

Leyton Orient at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Sweeney

Stevenage · D

8.2

Match Events

16'

Shaqai Forde

21'

C. McNeill↳ D. Butler

32'

44'

53'

53'

59'

R. Hunt← J. Brown

59'

J. Pigott← S. Forde

61'

E. List← C. McNeill

74'

M. Sanders← I. El Mizouni

79'

N. Freeman

86'

Jordan Roberts

87'

A. MacDonald← N. Freeman

90+3'

H. Neal← D. Sweeney

90+3'

R. Hannam← J. Roberts

90+3'

H. Anderson← J. Reid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonStevenage

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots10

8Corners6

13Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target4

4Off Target2

2Blocked4

2Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

493Total Passes232

372Accurate Passes113

75%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1